The Topology Research Institute (TRi) of Taiwan, a major market research and consulting firm for the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, recently said that the new Windows Vista operating system (OS) introduced by Microsoft would give ample reasons to consumers to replace older PCs with new notebook PCs.

After Microsoft introduced the Windows 95 OS to change the operating format into the "Windows" mode, TRi states, the upgraded versions, including the Windows 98, Windows 2000, and Windows XP, basically have not featured revolutionary functionalities-only enhancing web and multimedia-processing capacities-and so have had only modest effect on replacement PC buyers, who need newer machines mainly for bigger data-storage, higher transmission speed, and better three-dimensional (3D) graphic processing for radical video gaming.


The coming of the Windows Vista era, TRi explains, is expected to enlarge developmental space for the 64-bit computer software and hardware products due to the software upgrading in multimedia-data processing, web security, data search ability and others. So, the institute adds, the new 64-bit hardware and software-equipped products are expected to realize newer, bigger-capacity, faster-computing PCs with more appeal.

TRi also points out that Intel plans to release its next generation Centrino notebook platform, code-named "Santa Rosa," in the first half of 2007. Designed for use with Intel Core 2 Duo (Merom) processor, the Santa Rosa will incorporate 802.11n Wireless standard, `Robson` NAND Flash hard drive cache, Graphics Media Accelerator X3000 integrated card and 3G WAN card. The new Intel Centrino platform, introduced at the Intel Developer Forum, will feature 667Mhz to 800MHz frontside bus, with the bus speed able to be dynamically adjusted as required by the operating workload. Santa Rosa will also feature professional tools for administration, management and security for laptops-just as its desktop counterparts featuring Intel`s vPro technology.

The research institute forecasts that the new mobile platform is expected to raise the global annual shipment volume of notebook PCs to 87.7 million units in 2007, maintain the average selling prices (ASP) of new notebook PC models, and keep around-20% volume-growth momentum similar to that in 2006.

Consumer Replacement Tide

TRi optimistically forecasts that the global notebook PC market will grow by 20.47% to 87.7 million units, or even higher to around 90 million units, in 2007.

Major growth momentums will come mainly from various software and hardware products, according to the institute, such as Microsoft`s Windows Vista OS, Intel`s Santa Rosa mobile platform, super-thin, lightweight, high-efficiency notebook PCs with 17-inch or larger screen, the Ultra Mobile PC (UMPC, which offers consumers small, ultra-mobile devices with full PC capabilities, uncompromised Internet access, anytime connectivity, and the ability to recognize and adapt to its environment virtually anytime, anywhere.

The first replacement purchase tide is expected to come from the consumer segment, TRi says, with the peak wave of purchases from enterprises for new PCs expected to be delayed to 2008 and 2009 due to concerns for cost and web-data security.

Major International NB Brands and Taiwan Contract Suppliers Unit: 1,000 units
2007	Quanta	Compal	Wistron	Inventec	Asustek	Hon Hai	Outsourcing Volume
Dell	8,890	4,500	2,000		1,000		16,390
HPQ	5,000	3,500	2,300	400			14,800
Toshiba	1,200	3,200		3,500	300		8,200
Acer	4,000	2,800	2,700	1,000			10,500
Lenovo	300	800	2,200			500	3,800
Fujitsu	500		800	600			1,900
Apple	1,400				1,000	1,500	3,900
NEC	2,000	500					2,500
Sony	300				600	1,200	2,100
Asustek					4,000		4,000
Others	1,450	900	800	400	500		4,050
2007 (f)	25,040	16,200	10,800	9,500	7,400	3,200	72,140
YoY Growth	31.8%	19.2%	12.8%	41.6%	37.7%	113.3%	28.3%
2006 (e)	19,000		9,578	6,711	5,375	1,500	56,210
Source: TRi, November 2006.

Global-rank Reshuffling

TRi also forecasts that the global ranks of the major PC brands are expected to be reshuffled in 2007 as the major buyer groups from businesses and consumers shift.

Hewlett-Packard (HP) is expected to substitute Dell to become the world`s largest PC brand in 2007 thanks to replacement buys in the general consumer group in the first stage; while Acer is expected to climb to become the world`s No. 3 due to its successful strategies in the North American and emerging markets.

Apple Computer`s 2007 shipment is expected to see significant growth due to the effects of strong consumer identification with the company`s integration of iPod portable multimedia player and iTV (the world`s first Internet-enabled TV) into notebook PCs.

Asustek of Taiwan, already the world`s largest maker of motherboards, has been actively exploring the ASUS own-brand notebook PC market and is also expected to enjoy robust notebook PC shipment growth in 2007 due to increasing contract shipments to Dell and Toshiba, as well as smooth sales of ASUS-brand UMPCs, high-end 11-inch notebook PC with genuine-leather decorations, and dual-screen models (with external display).

Taiwan is expected to reap benefits from the introduction of the new Vista software and Santa Rosa, with increasing notebook PC shipments and stable ASPs in 2007, which is expected to be the next window of prosperity for the island`s notebook PC industry since the launch of Intel`s wireless Centrino mobile platform a few years ago.

Another trend in the local notebook PC industry is, according to TRi, the expected increase in the overlapping of customer segments of the leading notebook PC makers in Taiwan, including Quanta, Compal, Wistron, Inventec and Asustek, a scenario to be exasperated by Hon Hai Precision`s joining the race to land contract orders from big international brands. Hon Hai is already the world`s largest supplier of desktop barebone PCs, connectors and game consoles.
(by Quincy Liang)