Taiwan to see economic growth of 4.26% in 2004: CHIER
Dec 17, 2003 Ι Industry In-Focus
Ι Furniture Ι By Judy, CENS
Taipei, Dec. 17, 2003 (CENS)--Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CHIER), a major think tank in Taiwan, yesterday raised its forecast of Taiwan's economic growth for 2004 to 4.26% from an earlier prediction of 4.01%.
CHIER predicted the fixed capital investment to grow 6.39% in 2004, the first positive growth in three years, and forecast an 8.23% growth for private investment and a 3.06% increase for private spending.
After getting out of the shadow of the U.S.-Iraq war and the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, Taiwan's economy in the second half of this year has obviously recovered. Next year Taiwan's economy is expected to keep growing due mainly to the continuing rapid economic expansion in mainland China and gradual economic recovery in Japan and the U.S., CHIER analyzed.
In the third quarter of this year, Taiwan's economic growth posted at 4.2%, and CHIER predicted the growth rate for the full year to reach 3.12%. Private spending is projected to edge up 0.96% from last year and fixed capital investment is expected to suffer a negative growth of 2.19%, for the third consecutive annual drop. Private investment this year is also projected to register a negative growth of 1.32%.
The jobless rate for 2004 may drop to 4.87%, but the structural unemployment will remain serious, according CHIER.
By comparison, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) forecast Taiwan's economic growth for next year at 4.12%; and in the last quarter of this year the growth rate should be 4.85%, with the percentage for the full year to be 3.12%.
CHIER predicted the fixed capital investment to grow 6.39% in 2004, the first positive growth in three years, and forecast an 8.23% growth for private investment and a 3.06% increase for private spending.
After getting out of the shadow of the U.S.-Iraq war and the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, Taiwan's economy in the second half of this year has obviously recovered. Next year Taiwan's economy is expected to keep growing due mainly to the continuing rapid economic expansion in mainland China and gradual economic recovery in Japan and the U.S., CHIER analyzed.
In the third quarter of this year, Taiwan's economic growth posted at 4.2%, and CHIER predicted the growth rate for the full year to reach 3.12%. Private spending is projected to edge up 0.96% from last year and fixed capital investment is expected to suffer a negative growth of 2.19%, for the third consecutive annual drop. Private investment this year is also projected to register a negative growth of 1.32%.
The jobless rate for 2004 may drop to 4.87%, but the structural unemployment will remain serious, according CHIER.
By comparison, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) forecast Taiwan's economic growth for next year at 4.12%; and in the last quarter of this year the growth rate should be 4.85%, with the percentage for the full year to be 3.12%.
Predictions for Taiwan's Economic Growth in 2004 | |
Institutions | Growth Rate (%) |
Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan (Cabinet) | 4.10 |
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research | 4.26 |
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research | 4.12 |
Sources: The said institutions
Economic Growth Forecasts for Major Countries and Areas in Asia in 2004 | |
Countries & Areas | Economic Growth Rate (%) |
Taiwan | 4.3 |
Hong Kong | 5.1 |
S. Korea | 5.1 |
Singapore | 4.2 |
Mainland China | 8.5 |
Vietnam | 7.5 |
Thailand | 7.0 |
Indonesia | 4.5 |
Malaysia | 5.6 |
Philippines | 4.7 |
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