Taiwan's Economic Growth Forecast Raised to 3.04% for Q1, 2014

Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) lately raised modestly its prediction of Taiwan's economic growth to 3.04% in the first quarter from 3.02% predicted earlier, due to 30%-plus increase in securities trading value in the stock market for the quarter.

In Jan.-Mar., the annual growth of private spending is forecast to be 2.94%, up by 0.1 of a percentage point from that predicted in the previous month, which is believed to contribute 1.64 percentage points to the overall economic growth.

Unlike private spending, other economic indicators including government expenditure and gross capital formation all see lower growth forecast in March than a month earlier. Take the construction industry for example, the industry usually accounts for 50% of the gross capital formation and its growth in the first quarter is estimated to be merely 0.03%; and the imports of airplanes and cargo ships seemed to keep falling.

In the same quarter, the export value is likely to go up 3.72% and import up 2.08%. As a result foreign trade may contribute 1.57 percentage points to the projected GDP growth. (JL)

Predictions of Annual Growth of Taiwan's Economic Indicators for Q1, 2014  Unit: %
Economic indicator	Forecast in March	Forecast in February
Economic growth	3.04	3.02
Domestic demand	1.77	2.01
Private spending	2.94	2.84
Government consumption expenditure	-1.21	0.14
Gross capital formation	-0.3	0.41
Export	3.72	4.04
Import	2.08	2.88

Source: DGBAS