Taiwan's Population Growth Predicted to Go Negative in 2026

Taiwan's population is expected to reach a peak of 23.84 million at the end of 2026 and then start to decline, according to a forecast recently released by the Cabinet-level Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD).

About two years ago, the CEPD predicted that the island's population would top out at 23.23 million in 2018 and then begin to fall. The newly revised prediction extends the inception of negative growth to 2026 because the government plans to offer incentives to encourage young people to get married and have more babies.

According to CEPD figures, the average number of children born to each woman in Taiwan was 3.7 in 1971. The number dropped to 2.5 in 1981 and 1.1 today. The shrinking birth rate has led to a change in Taiwan's demographic structure; today the population aged above 65 accounts for 10.4% of the total, up by a sharp 3.4 percentage points from 1993's 7%. The ratio is predicted to jump to 22.5% in 2028, which means that more than one of every five persons on the island will be above 65.

The growing aged population may undermine the island's economy in the future, as working people will have to bear a heavier burden of caring for the elderly. Today there are seven people of working age (15-64) to support each old person above 65; the figure is predicted to decline to 3.2 persons in 2026, and further to 1.4 in 2056.

Wang Ling, a senior official in the CEPD's Manpower Planning Department, points out that if the government does no population planning Taiwan may become an aged society sooner than expected because the number of the newborns babies will be insufficient to replace the elderly who die off.

The CEPD also estimates that the population aged six, 12, and 18--the age of entry into elementary school, junior high school, and college-will decline by 16%, 36%, and 9%, respectively, over the next 10 years. The corresponding declines over the succeeding 20 years are forecast to be 22%, 37%, and 38%.

This is why the government is now actively encouraging young people to get married and have children, hoping to lower the percentage of unmarried females aged 45-49 to 18%, from 19% now, and to boost the number of children born to each married couple to 1.4, from the current 1.1.

The income curve in Taiwan society has gradually formed an "M" shape. Taiwan has witnessed the disappearance of 820,000 middle-income households over the past 25 years; today there are about 540,000 low-income households on the island, much more than the 280,000 households in the high-income bracket. The ratio of middle-income households tumbled from 41% of the total in 1980 to 30% in 2006.

A recent survey by the CEPD shows that almost 90% of those polled believe that the gap between the rich and the poor in Taiwan is quite large, and 75% believe that it will continue widening in the next five years. Over 77% of those polled complained that the government does not seem to have done enough to narrow the financial gap between the rich and the poor; they suggest that the government should collect more taxes from the rich and pay more attention to the poor, particularly children, and offer subsidies to help poor families maintain a basic standard of living.

Taiwan's predicted demography, 2008 to 2056
	Year	Population (10,000 persons)
Zero population growth	2026	2,383.7
Number babies born	2008	20.5
	2056	13.2
Inception of aging society*	2017	2,359.3

* “Aging society” means the population above 65 is more than that under 14.

Source: CEPD

Ratio of high-, middle-, and low-income households in Taiwan (%)
Year	High	Middle	Low
1980	32.0	41.6	26.4
1985	32.7	39.5	27.8
1990	33.6	37.2	29.2
1995	34.6	34.9	30.5
2000	34.6	33.0	32.4
2006	35.8	30.4	33.8

Source: CEPD