TSMC Chang: Semiconductor Industry Will Trend Down In 2nd Half

Taipei, March 18, 2010 (CENS)-Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) Chairman Morris Chang predicted a downtrend for the semiconductor industry as a whole throughout the second half of this year, not to grow again until early next year.

The industry guru made the forecast on March 17 at the Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) in Taipei.

Also, he forecast the industry to grow at annual rate of 4-5% worldwide in the 2011-2014 period, a much moderate growth rate as compared with the estimated 18% annual rate for this year.

Chang has since last year persistently revised upward forecast of industry trend until this quarter and his 12% contraction estimate for 2009 was even beaten by a 9% recession result.

Industry executives interpret his forecasts as perform to underperforming rating for the industry in short term, a revision from perform to outperforming rating.

However, his opinion about silicon-foundry segment remains encouraging, forecasting the sector to rise 29% throughout this year. About this sector of 2009, his estimate at an institutional conference held early this year was a 17% contraction, steeper than a 14-15% recession he projected in the fourth quarter last year.

The top executive of world's No.1 silicon foundry warned that declined chip costs could mean demands for chips are growing saturated.

Chang also warned that as technological barriers grow higher fewer chipmakers would be able to take part in next-generation technology programs in the future than now. He noted the number of chipmakers to get involved in development of 15-nm process would reduce to below three, a huge reduction from 15 chipmakers getting involved in 0.13-micron programs.