Taiwan to see 4.35% GDP growth for 2004: Academia Sinica

Taipei, Dec. 22, 2003 (CENS)--With expected stable political and economic climate in the world, Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow 4.35% in 20004, up from this year's 3.19%, according to the Institute of Economics under Academia Sinica, Taiwan's top academic organization.

Academia Sinica recently released a report on Taiwan's economic prospects for 2004, indicating that the island's economy may keep recovering gradually on rising exports and slowly growing domestic demand in the coming year.

Wu Chung-shu, economics researcher at the Academia Sinica, noted that in the second quarter of 2004, Taiwan's domestic demand is expected to grow rapidly, but private spending may see moderate increase due to slight improvement of unemployment. And private investments is predicted to expand by 10.13% next year.

Although the economic picture for next year seems rosy, there are still some factors that may influence the island's economic performance, including the unstable relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the island's presidential election slated for March 20, 2004, and the possible comeback of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In addition, the efficiency of the implementation of the government's new 10 construction projects and the marketing uncertainty caused by terrorists' attacks around the world will also impact Taiwan's economy next year.

Predictions of Taiwan's Economic Growth for 2003 & 2004
Institutions	Growth Rate (%)
	2003	2004
Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan (Cabinet) (2003/11)	3.15	4.10
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (2003/12)	3.12	4.26
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (2003/11)	3.51	4.62
Taiwan Research Institute (2003/12)	3.12	4.12
Council for Economic Planning & Development	3.52	5.00
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica (2003/12)	3.19	4.35

* Prediction dates are in the parentheses

Sources: The above organizations