cens logo

Future for LED Lighting Forecast to be Very Bright

Mar 14, 2011 | By Ken Liu

Demand for LED bulbs to surge by 2013 due to incandescent phase-out

LED bulbs will emerge as mainstream LED lighting in 2011.LED bulbs will emerge as mainstream LED lighting in 2011.

Digitimes Research, a Taiwan-based consulting firm tracking information-technology markets, estimates the output value of the LED (light emitting diode) light bulbs is likely to account for approximately 10%, or US$8 billion, of the total for the global lighting industry in 2011, surging from 2010's share of 3.2%.

Meanwhile the market turnover of extra-bright LED devices will surge to US$12.6 billion in 2011, up 53% from 2010's US$8.25 billion, driven mainly by higher adoption of such devices in bulbs.

F.H. Lin, a market analyst and project manager of the consulting firm that was co-founded by a group of Taiwan's high-tech entrepreneurs in 1998, attributes the impressive output value growth mostly to LED-bulb shipments, which she estimates will increase sharply due to major economies' banning of sale and production of incandescent bulbs by 2012.

Phase-out Driven
Lin projects global demand for LED bulbs to spike from 2011's 596 million to 2.5 billion by 2013 partly due to phasing out of 40W and 60W incandescent bulbs. However, the LED bulb demand by 2013 is still insignificant compared with the various 20 billion bulbs consumed worldwide today.

However LED bulbs are set to emerge as mainstream lighting of the future, in contrast to their applications as mainly portable, decorative and cabin lights in the past, Lin notes. "Consumption of LED bulbs will be driven by subsidies encouraging energy-saving products in North America, the European Union, Japan and South Korea, as well as rising willingness to buy such lighting at the retail level," Lin elaborates.

Rising replacements of incandescent bulbs with LED bulbs, she forecasts, will fuel demand for extra-bright LED devices, boosting the market scale to12.4 billion units in 2011 from 2010's 4.8 billion units.

LED bulbs will emerge as mainstream LED lighting in 2011.LED bulbs will emerge as mainstream LED lighting in 2011.

Tech Advances
Also, she believes technological advances and price declines will substantially help enhance market acceptance of LED lamps. Citing guidelines set by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), she notes that LED luminous efficacy will rise to 243 lumen-watt by 2020, up from 140 lumen-watt in 2010.

Prices of extra-bright LED devices for lighting, Lin feels, will drop annually 20-30%, motivating the LED-lighting market to grow at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 97.4% between 2009 and 2013, much higher than the 62.6% rate estimated for the LED backlight market.

Japan is even more ambitious than the United States, with the semi-official New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) making solid-state lamps the only allowable for shops in Japan by 2020, and 200 lumen-watt efficacy the standard for LED lamps by 2015.

"Major economies are designating LED lighting as critical elements of their energy policy to meet the global eco trend, helping to drive revenue growth of LED lighting. The market value of LED lighting for 2011 is likely to total US$15.4 billion worldwide, or 10.6% of the total for the overall lighting market," Lin says.

Streetlights to Help
Streetlight, Lin notes, will also help to raise the market penetration of LED lighting, with an estimated 9.8 million lights to be installed worldwide by 2013, up from 2011's projected 2.2 million. Revenue generated by LED lighting will grow further to represent 20% of the total worldwide due to increasing use of LED streetlights in public-work projects in major economies, not to mention the counterpart from the foreseeable LED bulb boom.

While governments worldwide add more LED streetlights in public-work projects, LED-lighting heavyweights as Philips, Osram and Cree, Lin notes, will target the general-lighting market after 2012, as shown by Lin's studies.

Edward Po, general manager of Philips Taiwan Ltd.'s lighting division, boldly estimates the LED lighting segment will likely make up 75% of global lighting market by 2020, up from 7% in 2008.

The above forecast may not seem exaggerated considering that LED lighting sales for the first time contributed over 10%, or 1.89 billion euros (US$2.4 billion), to Philips Consumer Luminaries Group's global revenue in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Philips' product line will be half made up of LED lighting by 2015, at which time the group believes LEDs can achieve performance/price ratio of 50%, with LED lighting to account for 75% of its product portfolio by 2020. To achieve such goal, Philips will invest one billion euros to develop green technologies including LEDs and enter cross-licensing agreements with Cree, according to Po.

Source: Digtimes Research Source: Digtimes Research

Industry Reports

C85690 forgeable lead-free dezincification resistant brass-made plumbing valve spool. (Forged product) Photo credit: MIRDC

Eco-friendly materials continue to trend amid global industry change

Mar 25, 2022

Industries are focusing on new technologies for better environmental sustainability and to promote the overall protection and safety of consumers. The same is trending in Taiwan's hardware and plumbing sector. Companies and consumers are becoming more and more aware of the long-term impact of pollutive materials on natural resources, and as policies and regulations are changed in other crucial ma...

Toyota's new energy vehicle model. Photo credit: UDN/Reuters

Auto brands and chip makers step up alliances in EV era

Mar 25, 2022

Japanese automotive brand Toyota's recent announcement of reducing production in March due to chip shortages is another setback for the company, as this would not be its first time scaling back capacity in the past two years. Earlier, Toyota had also announced that the chip shortages had slashed the group's production goals from April to June. However, Economic Daily News points out that Toyot...

ARTC and industry supplier representatives show the signed MOU, signifying the alliance's creation. (Photo courtesy of ARTC)

ARTC and Automotive Electronic Industry Reps Ink AI Imagery Chip and Smart Cockpit Alliance

Mar 18, 2022

Top automotive electronic suppliers and Taiwan's leading R&D center in autonomous technology and testing, Automotive Research and Testing Center (ARTC), collectively announced the formation of the “Automotive AI Imagery Chip and Smart Cockpit Display Module Industry Alliance" on March 18. Representatives from Elan Microelectronics, AU Optronics, Chimei Motor, China Motor, RAC Electric Vehicles...

Industry In-Focus

Auto terminal and EV charging gun maker notes optimistic market ahead</h2>

Auto terminal and EV charging gun maker notes optimistic market ahead

Mar 28, 2022

Electrical terminal, wiring and connector maker K.S. Terminals Inc. expects order visibility to reach Q2, amid strong growth in the EV market as reported at its earnings call last week. The company is looking at two-digit growth for this year's goal, eying significant demand from green energy selections and automotive terminals and charging guns for electric vehicles, notably the latter. In the...

Photo credit: UDN

February manufacturing index breaks records in consecutive 25-month stretch

Mar 24, 2022

The Ministry of Economic Affairs said today that in February, the industrial production index was 117.49, with an annual increase of 10.01% due to easing supply chain disruptions and chip shortages. This marks the 25-month consecutive positive growth period, also the second-longest in history. The manufacturing index was 119.76, an annual increase of 10.16%, which set a new high for the same ...

Furniture industry to see lasting change in digitalized era</h2>

Furniture industry to see lasting change in digitalized era

Mar 18, 2022

If there's a keyword that can be used to summarize the past two years, it would be “digitalization.” Across different industries, companies and suppliers are seeking ways to tap into the post-COVID market, and the furniture sector is no different. Here are two trends we've identified that would and continue to shape the market in the coming year and more. Going Digital While the typical con...

Supplier News

Steel Mark well-recognized as reliable supplier of lock products</h2>

Steel Mark well-recognized as reliable supplier of lock products

Mar 25, 2022

Founded in 1981, Steel Mark is specialized in manufacturing locks and other related hardware. The company's product catalog includes padlocks, motorcycle and bike locks, deadbolt locks, digital door locks, door locks, rim and euro profile cylinders, and concerning hardware and parts. The company currently operates modern manufacturing facilities occupying 3,300 square meters with more than 40...


Wire Master's quest for quality and innovation puts them at industry top</h2>

Wire Master's quest for quality and innovation puts them at industry top

Mar 18, 2022

In the face of an ever-competitive global market and pressured by rising costs, Wire Master Industry believes the best chance of increasing its competitiveness is improving product quality and investing more into R&D. This allows Wire Master to be in a prime position to stake a good position in the market. Wire Master is looking to develop long-term partnerships with similar values and focus on p...


CM-667 children's chair in Pink. (Photo courtesy of Kuang Shin)

Designing Furniture for Children's Future

Mar 18, 2022

Since the founders' humble beginnings in the 1960s, traveling from his hometown in Chiayi County to urban Taipei City to learn a trade, he has dedicated the eventually-formed Kuang Shin Enterprise to providing quality products. Kuang Shin offers children's desks and chairs, computer chairs, furniture hardware, OA office chair and desks, connected chairs, display shelves, chair bases, and parts...


Insiders' Views

Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd.</h2><p class='subtitle'>Taiwan First brakes Technology Co., Ltd. </p>

Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd.

Taiwan First brakes Technology Co., Ltd.

Mar 04, 2021

Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd is one of the major manufacturers of automobile friction materials in Taiwan and globally. Chairman Austin Cheng has implemented the double-arrow strategy this year - own brand of “YangPo” is adopted to focus on global channels while the “NHC brand focuses on improving market shares in global markets, such as Europe, America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle E...


OmniEyes CEO and Co-Founder Chun-Ting Chou. (Photo courtesy of OmniEyes)

OmniEyes' AI Technology Paves the Way for Traditional Industries' Digital Transition

Dec 15, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the industries' timeline for implementing digital transformation. However, the how's and what's of applying new technologies and improving the added value to existing products and services can be daunting. Three professors from the National Taiwan University College of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science founded the startup company "OmniEyes," basi...

Caption: Pictured from front row, third right, Changhua County Government Economic Affairs Department Director Liu Yu-ping, County Magistrate Wang Huei-mei, Secretary Chen Bo-tsun pose in front of the exhibition booth. (Photo provided by CHCIA)

Changhua County Government Shores up Biz-Matching to Global Buyers

Nov 18, 2019

■Yang Feng-Chun In a bid to assist manufacturers in Changhua County to expand their market reach overseas against severe competition in the globalized market, Changhua County Government has been an active player in pushing for a makeover and innovation of its local small and medium-sized enterprises. This is done in hopes of establishing stronger connection with international markets. An ex...

Exhibition Highlights

Show grounds at the 2022 Smart City & IoT expo. Photo credit: UDN

Smart City & IoT expo kicks off showcasing energy solutions

Mar 23, 2022

The 2022 Smart City and IoT exhibition kicked off on March 22, featuring top Taiwanese brands showcasing related applications in the sector. It is worth noting that in addition to 5G-related extension and other mainstream smart city applications, energy storage has become a highlight at this show, notably, TECO, Far EasTone, and Gogoro all have offered relative solutions. According to statisti...

2022 Smart City Summit & Expo to kick off on Tuesday</h2>

2022 Smart City Summit & Expo to kick off on Tuesday

Mar 21, 2022

With the 2022 Smart City Summit & Expo scheduled to kick off on Tuesday at the Nangang Exhibition Center Hall 2 from March 22 to March 25, and Kaohsiung Exhibition Center from March 24 to 26, exhibitors are quickly rolling out new products for this year, including TECO Group. In the past few years, TECO has exhibited at the show exhibiting the group's subsidiaries, concentrating on AI, IoT, n...

TIMTOSxTMTS 2022 kicks off on Monday's opening ceremony. Photo credit: Chao Ting Yu/CENS

TIMTOSxTMTS 20222 Mega Show kicks off at Nangang with 950-strong exhibitors

Feb 22, 2022

TIMTOS x TMTS 2022, the first international trade show and the first of its kind on the calendar, kicked off this Monday, with Taiwan Association of Machinery Industry (TAMI) Chairman Larry Wei pointing out that business orders generated from the mega show are expected to hit USD$$1.7 billion (NTD$47 billion). President Tsai said that in the face of the impacts caused by the pandemic, as well ...