Taiwan’s Population Growth to be Negative by 2025

Taipei, July 25, 2012, (CENS)--Taiwan, already reported to have the world’s lowest birth rate, is predicted to be a “graying society” after six years, with population growth to be negative by 2025, when the proportion of 65-plus people rises to 20%, according to forecast recently released by the Economic Planning and Development (CEPD).

The number of newborns is predicted to rise to an estimated 220,000 to 230,000 this year. But the population growth will be negative by 2025, two years later than originally forecasted, said Chen Shi-chang, direct of Manpower Planning Department.

About two years ago, the CEPD predicted Taiwan to be a graying society by 2017 when the proportion of 65-plus people accounts for 14% of the total. However with the number of married people and newborns both increasing recently, the CEPD thus postponed the start of graying society to 2018.

A CEPD official said the average birthrate in Taiwan rose to 1.06 last year and will reach 1.24 this year due to the superstitious belief that 2012, “Year of the Dragon,” is propitious for parenthood, with the birthrate expected to drop thereafter.

The CEPD also compares Taiwan with other European and Asian countries in population forecast over the next 50 years, discovering Taiwan to have in fact a young population in 2010, with median age of 37.4, younger than that for Japan, Germany, Italy, France and England; but such median age in Taiwan will rise to 55.6 by 2050, versus sub-50 in the U.S., England, France and Italy.

The CEPD official added that the birthrate in Taiwan has been declining for decades to create the inevitable graying society.