cens logo

Sales of Commercial e-Trucks and Buses to Total 805,000+ Between 2014 and 2023: Navigant Research

May 25, 2015 | By Quincy Liang

With even erstwhile skeptics now seriously considering the various ominous predictions regarding greenhouse gas emissions' part in global warming and man's role in exacerbating such phenomenon with potentially disastrous consequences as drastic weather and flooding of areas near sea level, and as electric vehicles, with high-profile examples being Tesla and Nissan Leaf, gradually gaining credibility as practical commuting alternatives to gasoline-powered vehicles, some industry analysts are looking at the growth and potential for rising adoption of electric commercial vehicles, whose sales volume still lag far behind those of passenger cars but actually have significant impact on ecology due to their much bigger engines, higher fuel consumption and exhaust volume.

Incentive to Go e-Vehicle
Most larger commercial, industrial vehicles as 18-wheelers and even delivery trucks typically burn diesel for cost-efficiency. "Diesel exhaust is a complex mixture of thousands of gases and fine particles (commonly known as soot) that contains more than 40 toxic air contaminants. These include many known or suspected cancer-causing substances, such as benzene, arsenic and formaldehyde. It also contains other harmful pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (a component of urban smog)," according to a fact sheet by the Cal/EPA's Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment and the American Lung Association. Such revealing study only adds more incentive for vehicle makers and eco-aware politicians to promote shifting from traditional fuels to electricity.

A recent report from Navigant Research analyzes the global market for commercial vehicles that use electric drive vehicle technology, including global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use through 2023, with the report forecasting sales of electric trucks and buses to total more than 805,000 units between 2014 and 2023.

Although medium- and heavy-duty vehicles represent just a fraction of all vehicles on roadways today, the research firm says they contribute significantly to road transportation sector fuel consumption and carbon emissions. However, electric vehicles—with improved fuel efficiency, technological advances, and being alternative to gasoline and diesel fuels—are beginning to make inroads in this segment as commercial and government fleet operators consider investing in greener vehicles.

Navigant Research forecasts sales of e-trucks and buses could exceed 805,000 between 2014 and 2023. (photo from Internet)Navigant Research forecasts sales of e-trucks and buses could exceed 805,000 between 2014 and 2023. (photo from Internet)

“Recent innovation in the electric drive medium/heavy duty segment has the possibility to offer significant benefits for commercial applications,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “For example, some hybrid electric vehicles have drive cycles specifically designed for stop-start traffic, and many plug-in electric vehicles can use onboard electrical energy to replace idling diesel engines or provide temporary power to buildings or tools at remote sites.”

Despite these advances, most fleet managers are shortsighted to be more concerned with return-on-investment than with technology to target a payback term of less than three years, according to the report. While incentives can help to lower initial investment, managers look at the overall cost of running a fleet for multiple years, considering the effect of introducing new technology on the fleet as a whole and not just replacing a single vehicle with a different one.

Charging Revenue Up Too
Alongside the increasing sales of electric cars, EV charging service revenue is also rising, though the interoperability issues still remains a key barrier to today's commercial charging market.

Navigant Research says worldwide revenue from EV charging services is expected to total US$11.3 billion between  2014 and 2023. (photo from Internet)Navigant Research says worldwide revenue from EV charging services is expected to total US$11.3 billion between 2014 and 2023. (photo from Internet)

Another report from Navigant Research analyzes the global market for plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging equipment sales and charging services that was released recently. While growth in the residential segment of the PEV charging market tends to grow alongside PEV sales, the commercial segment depends more on workable business models and, in some regions, government policy. These differences aside, revenue in both segments is expected to increase in the coming years as the industry for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) continues to evolve.

According to Navigant Research, worldwide revenue from electric vehicle charging services is expected to total US$11.3 billion between 2014 and 2023.

“The residential charging market is entering a phase where chargers are simply a commodity, with a focus on bringing down the price,” says Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “Meanwhile, the commercial charging market is in a state of flux, experimenting with different business models, including free charging to draw customers, fees for usage, and using advertising, hoping to find the most viable options for long-term growth.”

A key barrier preventing further growth in the commercial charging market is a lack of interoperability, from the inability of stations to connect with each other across multiple networks to the challenge of paying for network access, according to the report. Though the EVSE industry has made efforts to resolve interoperability issues by adopting open standards, the issue remains important, as it allows equipment to be centrally managed regardless of hardware and charging station information to be aggregated and shared with drivers regardless of software and systems.

Vehicle-Grid Integration
Another issue related to the development of the global EV market is vehicle-grid integration (VGI) services, whose revenue, according to Navigant Research, is expected to total US$68 million from 2015 to 2024; while energy aggregators and major fleets are expected to be the initial market entrants, the research firm says.

Revenue from vehicle-grid integration (VGI) services, according to Navigant Research, is expected to total US$68 million from 2015 to 2024. (photo from Internet)Revenue from vehicle-grid integration (VGI) services, according to Navigant Research, is expected to total US$68 million from 2015 to 2024. (photo from Internet)

By participating in grid-balancing services, such as frequency regulation or demand response, PEVs can accrue revenue and increase return-on- investment of vehicle to owner. However, these vehicles also incur a significant increase in electricity demand that, if unmanaged, could cause problems with distribution-level transformers and drastically increase demand during peak hours, Navigant Research says.

“Now that the market for PEVs has begun to solidify, with global sales surpassing 320,000 units in 2014, pilot testing VGI technologies are emerging with greater frequency,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “This is a key development for the VGI market because PEVs represent an increase in load that could be used to capture renewable electricity generation and help balance generation with demand, theoretically making electricity marginally cheaper and cleaner.”

The initial entrants to near-term markets for VGI are expected to be energy aggregators and major fleets, according to the report. Aggregators will include VGI-enabled fleets within energy generation portfolios to access markets with the highest returns, generating the capital necessary to locate and make available significant power, Navigant Research said.


Industry In-Focus

SINOSTEEL Corporation: Rising price in Steel</h2>

SINOSTEEL Corporation: Rising price in Steel

Jun 05, 2020

Brazil’s new crown pneumonia epidemic has rapidly increased. Brazil’s Vale, the world’s largest iron ore producer, is facing an out-of-control impact. The market is worried that iron ore production and sales will be affected. new highs. Experts from Sinosteel (2002) evaluated that steel prices will rise steadily under the effect of rising costs, with a promising outlook. According to a legal p...


Apple Invests Millions in LED Plant in Taiwan</h2>

Apple Invests Millions in LED Plant in Taiwan

Jun 01, 2020

Apple is considering to invest over US$330 million in a factory in northern Taiwan to manufacture both LED and micro-LED displays for its iPhones, iPads, MacBooks, and other new devices. Apple is teaming up on the new factory with Epistar, Taiwan's top LED producer, and Taiwanese LCD panel maker, AU Optronics. The plant will be located in the Longtan branch of the Hsinchu Science Park and Appl...


Taiwan Machinery Was Applauded in COVID-19</h2>

Taiwan Machinery Was Applauded in COVID-19

May 18, 2020

What the epidemic showed was the amazing flexibility of Taiwan's machine tool industry. Taiwan, which has allowed the semiconductor industry to specialize in the past, has finally realized that these machine tool industries with amazing strength are the "invisible champions" of Taiwan's economy. In early February, three companies -- Habor Precision, Tongtai Machine & Tool and Taiwan Takisawa -...



Industry Reports

K, the leading global plastic and rubber trade fair (Photo courtesy of Messe Düsseldorf/ctillmann)

K, The World's Leading Trade Fair for Plastic and Rubber Industry

Jul 24, 2020

2019 K Show, the leading global trade fair for the plastics and rubber industry, had been held in Düsseldorf on 16-23 October, 2019. There were 3,330 exhibitors from 63 nations proved impressively: plastics continue to be an innovative, indispensable material. But they also unanimously underscored the necessity of having operational circular economies along the complete material chain and to this...


Photo courtesy of CENS

Digital Healthcare & Technology at the Heart of Las Vegas CES 2020

Jul 14, 2020

■ Hubert Chih The number of healthcare exhibitors at the 2020 CES in Las Vegas increased significantly by 23% from 2019. According to the analysis and report by the CES organizer, digital healthcare and technology were the focus in the healthcare exhibition. In addition to the continued expansion of healthcare coverage, the reduction of healthcare costs, the improvement of effectiveness and th...


The Taiwan Hardware Show sees global buyer attendance. (Photo provided by Kaigo Co.)

Taiwan's Hand Tools Seeking Opportunities Amid Global Crisis

Jul 10, 2020

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the globe, most of the international hardware shows slated for this year has been moved to 2021. However, as Taiwan’s efforts combating the new virus has proven to be successful, the 2020 Taiwan Hardware Show (THS) will continue as scheduled, beginning on Oct. 13 and ending on the 15th at the Taichung International Exhibition Center, thus becoming the only sh...



Supplier News

With professional technics and rigorous quality control, Kung Hsing gains high-reputation in the industry</h2>

With professional technics and rigorous quality control, Kung Hsing gains high-reputation in the industry

Jul 23, 2020

Kung Hsing Plastic Machinery Co., LTD., founded in 1972, is the brainchild of the company President Tsai Chin-lien’s over 48 years of experience in designing and producing extrusion machines. The firm stood by its belief to uphold integrity and offer the best quality and services, eventually becoming a leader in the extrusion machinery industry in Taiwan. Kung Hsing currently has two factories; t...

KUNG HSING PLASTIC MACHINERY CO., LTD.


INTYPE ENTERPRISE CO., LTD. TUNG TAI MACHINE WORKS CO., LTD. </h2>

INTYPE ENTERPRISE CO., LTD. TUNG TAI MACHINE WORKS CO., LTD.

Jul 21, 2020

■ Tseng Lung-nan Intype Enterprise has built up 55 years of experience in producing extruders, though the firm is placing greater consideration on rapidly degrading of the global environment. In the past 20 years, Intype has become an active contributor to building up a global ecosystem, enabling them to reuse the products manufactured by their own extruders and avoid further waste. The firm t...

INTYPE ENTERPRISE CO., LTD.


YFCM Carbon Fiber Driveshaft Lauded in the field of Modified Cars for its Flexibility </h2>

YFCM Carbon Fiber Driveshaft Lauded in the field of Modified Cars for its Flexibility

Jul 14, 2020

■Hsiao Yung-le Yifeng Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and development of carbon fiber transmission shafts and the manufacture of carbon fiber related products.The carbon fiber material has the characteristics of lightweight, impact resistance, fatigue resistance, and corrosion, and chemical stability is quite high. The product type is increasing in the extensive range with an ...

YI FENG COMPOSITE MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.



Insiders' Views

Caption: Pictured from front row, third right, Changhua County Government Economic Affairs Department Director Liu Yu-ping, County Magistrate Wang Huei-mei, Secretary Chen Bo-tsun pose in front of the exhibition booth. (Photo provided by CHCIA)

Changhua County Government Shores up Biz-Matching to Global Buyers

Nov 18, 2019

■Yang Feng-Chun In a bid to assist manufacturers in Changhua County to expand their market reach overseas against severe competition in the globalized market, Changhua County Government has been an active player in pushing for a makeover and innovation of its local small and medium-sized enterprises. This is done in hopes of establishing stronger connection with international markets. An ex...


Paul Master offers high-quality chassis and engines parts for passenger cars, trucks, and industrial trucks. (Photo courtesy of Paul Master)

Paul Master Builds Reputation with Auto Chassis and Engine Parts

Nov 18, 2019

Founded in 1980, Paul Master Auto Parts Co. is headquartered in Taiwan, a professional manufacturer of chassis and engines parts for passenger cars, trucks, and industrial trucks including forklifts. General Manager Terry Liang said the company has its own professional design department, which provides customized products and specifications for global buyers, including automobile steering and...

PAUL MASTER AUTO PARTS CO.


Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd.</h2><p class='subtitle'>Taiwan First brakes Technology Co., Ltd. </p>

Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd.

Taiwan First brakes Technology Co., Ltd.

Sep 04, 2019

Nan Hoang Traffic Instrument Co., Ltd is one of the major manufacturers of automobile friction materials in Taiwan and globally. Chairman Austin Cheng has implemented the double-arrow strategy this year - own brand of “YangPo” is adopted to focus on global channels while the “NHC brand focuses on improving market shares in global markets, such as Europe, America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle E...



Exhibition Highlights

Koelnmesse (Beijing) Co., Ltd.

Announcement on Postponement of China International Hardware Show 2020 (CIHS 2020)

Jul 10, 2020

In view of the continuous spreading of COVID-19 all over the world and the latest epidemic prevention requirements of China and the government of Shanghai, in order to guarantee the health and safety of exhibitors, purchasers and professional visitors, China National Hardware Association and Koelnmesse have prudently decided to postpone China International Hardware Show 2020 (CIHS 2020) from Augu...


Automechanika Shanghai 2020 creates channels for cross-sector collaboration</h2>

Automechanika Shanghai 2020 creates channels for cross-sector collaboration

Jun 16, 2020

This year, Automechanika Shanghai continues to serve the entire automotive value chain by offering opportunities for information exchange, marketing, trade and education. Both vertically and horizontally, from OE, vehicle production to the aftermarket, it incorporates all elements of manufacturing, supply networks, services, new business models and information technology. Companies across the...


Messe Frankfurt (Shanghai) Co Ltd

CAPAS defers to 2021

Apr 20, 2020

Following the Chinese Government’s initiatives to prevent and control the COVID-19 outbreak, the organisers of the Chengdu International Trade Fair for Automotive Parts and Aftermarket Services (CAPAS) have announced the defer of the show’s 2020 edition. The fair, originally scheduled from 21 to 23 May 2020, will now be held from 20 to 22 May 2021. In China, the State Council issued an announc...