CIER Forecasted a GDP of 4.14% This Year, With Expected Upward Revisions

Taiwan’s Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) has forecasted a GDP growth of 4.14% this year, suggesting that further upward revisions remain possible. Following the conclusion of the U.S.-Taiwan tariff negotiations, the improving outlook continued with demand for AI-related hardware, which is expected to support both exports and imports.

The CIER estimates that Taiwan’s exports could reach up to USD $760.8 billion this year, providing a substantial boost to overall growth. Compared with projections made in October last year, the institute has raised its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.98 and 1.59 percentage points, respectively. A similar upward revision is widely expected when the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research releases its updated forecast later this month.

According to Su-Ling Peng, director of CIER’s forecasting centre, growth this year is likely to be front-loaded, with strong momentum in the first half followed by more moderate expansion. Quarterly growth rates are projected at 7.36% in the first quarter, easing to around 3.1% in the second half. The growth pattern is also shifting from last year’s expansion to a more balanced domestic demand and net exports.

Exports remain the principal driver. CIER projects an annual increase of nearly 19% this year, underpinned by performance in electronics and information and communications technology. Chao-Chi Lin, a senior economist at the institute, said revenues at the four largest electronics firms could rise by more than 25%, potentially lifting electronics exports above US$600 billion. Strong non-electronics shipments would push total exports comfortably beyond US$760 billion, with further upside possible if tariff adjustments on vehicle imports stimulate consumption.

Officials also highlight structural tailwinds. AI investment remains strong, with global capital spending expected to grow sharply again this year, while recently agreed tariff reductions, particularly on automotive components, have eased competitive pressures. Even so, policymakers caution that shifting global trade patterns and more fragmented supply chains will require Taiwan to exercise its AI and semiconductor advantages for broader, more resilient economic gains.